Week 3 Shake-Up: Upsets, Letdowns & A Silver Linings
09-24-2025
Week 3 in the NFL wasn’t kind to Circa Survivor players. Two major upsets I need to cover, the Packers losing to the Browns and the Falcons getting crushed by the Panthers, took out thousands of entries. But while those losses stung, there’s a silver lining: this year has seen a record low elimination rate in Circa Survivor contests, with way more people alive through three weeks than usual.
The Fallout
The Packers came into Week 3 as one of the safest bets on the board. They were ranked 4th in power polls and entered as heavy favorites against the Browns, who were considered the second weakest team in the league. For most of the game, Green Bay looked in control, they were up 10–0 heading into the fourth quarter.
Buttt, sorry to all the cheeseheads out there, it all fell apart and fast. The Browns stormed back, tied the game, and then drilled a 55-yard field goal at the buzzer to pull off the upset of the week. All I’m saying is, why couldn’t the Packers have taken this loss back in Week 1? If you remember my earlier blog, I was at a Packers watch party decked out head-to-toe in Lions gear. No celebrations for me, instead, I had to sit there while every Green Bay fan in the room rubbed that win in my face. All jokes aside, this single loss wiped out a massive chunk of Circa Survivor entries, showing again that no favourite is ever “safe.”
The Falcons were another popular play, riding into a seemingly favourable matchup against a Panthers team that looked overmatched on paper. Instead, Atlanta completely unraveled. The Panthers didn’t just sneak a win, they dominated 30–0. Anyone leaning on the Falcons got bounced without even the courtesy of a sweat.
That’s the beauty of Circa Survivor contests, though, every week brings new twists. The very outcomes that knock out thousands also make the game exciting for those still alive. Even after the Packers’ collapse and the Falcons’ blowout, more than 13,000 entries are still in the mix heading into Week 4. The prize pool gets more valuable with each passing week, and every upset just raises the stakes.
The Bright Side: Record Low Eliminations in 2025
Here’s the upside: while Week 3 delivered some painful exits, eliminations are actually at a record low this year. Through three weeks, fewer people have been knocked out than in any other season of Circa Survivor. Only 3,154 entries were eliminated this week, leaving a massive 13,811 alive heading into Week 4. For context, VSiN Live’s podcast ‘A Numbers Game’ pointed out that by this point in past seasons, we’d already seen wipeouts well north of 30–60% of entries. So give yourself a pat on the back if you are still hanging in there, I know I am.
Circa Survivor Outlook for Week 4
Looking ahead, Week 4 is where strategy really kicks in. The early eliminations may have thinned the herd, but with over 13,000 entries still alive, the pressure’s on to pick wisely.
- Heavily used already: A big chunk of the pool has already burned through the 49ers (only 51.8% availability left), the Broncos (58.5%), and the Cardinals (47.0%). Those “safe” early picks have taken hits in popularity, which could make them less of a factor moving forward.
- Still wide open: On the other hand, teams like the Browns, Dolphins, Giants, Jets, and Vikings are sitting at 100% availability, literally no one has touched them yet. Even top contenders like the Chiefs, Eagles, and Cowboys remain available to 95%+ of entries.
Circa Millions Heats Up: Last Week of the Quarterly Prize
Week 4 marks the final stretch for the first quarterly prize in Circa Millions VII, and the competition is fierce. At the top of the leaderboard is He Is The One, sitting at an incredible 14–1 record through three weeks.
He Is The One signed up through Winners Circle Proxy. That’s right, one of our own is leading the entire contest. It’s always exciting to see our players not just competing, but setting the pace at the very top of the standings. We are all cheering for you!
Right on their heels are Odd Couple-1 and Wretchy-1 at 13–2, with a swarm of entries (26 tied at 12–3) lurking just behind. One week of picks will decide who cashes in the first quarterly prize, and one misstep could flip the leaderboard completely. And for balance, don’t forget the Booby Prize race at the bottom—D. Long-1 and Frankie Black-1 are hanging tough at 1–14.
Final Thoughts
Week 3 reminded us that no pick is ever truly “safe,” but the silver lining is clear, this year’s Circa Survivor field is deeper than ever. With over 13,000 still alive, the game is only heating up, and every choice in Week 4 carries even more weight.